Drop in Homicides 'Progress' but 'By No Means Victory', McCarthy Says

Officials this week called the city's murder toll decrease "progress", but not victory.

Mayor Rahm Emanuel and Chicago Police Superintendent Garry McCarthy announced that through the city's coordinated strategy, murders and shootings dropped in the first quarter of 2013. But some are criticizing what they say are deceiving statistics.

The numbers continue a trend of a decrease in murders from the fourth quarter of 2012. The rate at which murders are solved is up significantly compared to the first quarter of 2012, a Chicago Police Department news release also said.

“The downward trend in murders and shootings represents positive progress through our comprehensive strategy, yet there is more work to be done,” Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel said, according to a news release.

Chicago’s murder rate fell 69 percent in March, he said, with 36 fewer murders in the city than in March 2012. This continues the six month trend of a declining murder rate. For the first quarter of 2013 overall there were 50 fewer murders than the first quarter of last year—a drop of 42 percent.

Going back six months to the beginning of the fourth quarter 2012, the murder rate has dropped 28 percent. Shooting incidents have significantly decreased in 2013; down 27 percent from the first quarter of 2012.

The rate at which murders are solved is on the rise with the clearance rate in the first quarter up significantly to 74 percent, compared to 23 percent at the end of the first quarter 2012.

CBS 2 Chief Correspondent Jay Levine reports that the numbers are deceiving. He writes:

If you weren’t paying close attention, you might have thought they were saying Chicago’s safer than it’s been in 50 years. In reality, it was simply a return to normal after a huge spike early last year.

Take a closer look at the numbers: 2013′s 70 first-quarter homicides was a major improvement over 2012′s 120—but not over 2011 or 2010 or 2009.

When Levine suggested it’s misleading for the city's officials to talk about a “blockbuster decrease” in homicides, McCarthy reportedly said, “We’re 5 numbers below where we were two years ago.”

“Policing is vital, but it is only one part of a larger strategy that includes stronger prevention in our communities, more stable parenting in our homes, spirited preaching in our houses of worship and stiffer penalties for serious offenses in our courts,” McCarthy said, according to the release.

Locally, the murder rate is rather low.

A recent study analyzing more than 6,100 homicides within a 12-year period in Chicago revealed that Lincoln Park, overall, had about 10 percent of the murder rate of neighborhoods to the west.

Among the city's deadliest places was Austin, where 450 homicides are listed, according to the map.

Emanuel’s comprehensive strategy to prevent crime involves the entire community—including organizations, ministers, principals and citizens, he said.

In addition to strategic policing, such as Operation Impact and the Gang Violence Reduction Initiative, the city is investing in stronger prevention by making sure kids have productive activities outside of the classroom.

Chicago is increasing the investment in after-school programs by 30 percent, doubling summer jobs for students, tripling the investment in the Becoming a Man Program and supporting Windy City Hoops, the release said.

"This progress is a result of the hard work of the dedicated men and women who work tirelessly to protect our streets, our partners in the community, ministers, teachers, principals, parents and residents,” McCarthy said. "These numbers are progress, but they are by no means victory. We will continue to build on our larger crime reduction strategy to bring safety to every neighborhood.”